Everyone guesses. This tool does the math.
Educational tool — not financial advice| Year | BTC stacked | Invested | Value (trend) | Value (floor) |
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No sales pitch. Just a conversation about your Bitcoin savings strategy.
Send an Email1. Bitcoin follows a power law. Giovanni Santostasi’s model (2024) fits 15+ years of daily price data to a log-log regression: log10(price) = a + b × log10(days since genesis). R² exceeds 0.95. This is a statistical regularity rooted in network adoption dynamics, not a trendline drawn through noise.
2. The trend gives us a fair-value baseline. Monthly DCA purchases are priced at the power law trend for each future month. This is the expected long-term value — not a prediction of market price on any given day, but the center of gravity that price oscillates around. Over multi-year horizons, actual buy prices average toward the trend.
3. The floor is the model's worst-case reference. Defined as the −2σ band (0.42× trend), the floor represents the model's worst-case price. Bitcoin has closed below this level on only about 2.4% of trading days (135 of 5,713 daily closes) — and recovered above it every time. The “Value (floor)” column in the projection table shows what your stack is worth even if Bitcoin sits at this worst-case level for your entire horizon.
4. Through network adoption, there are structurally more buyers than sellers at floor price levels. At −2σ, long-term holders and dollar-cost averagers see a generational discount. Selling pressure (miners, leveraged liquidations) is finite and self-exhausting. This buyer/seller asymmetry is why the floor has held for 15 years — it is an economic equilibrium, not a coincidence.
5. Measured from the floor, all volatility is on the upside. If the floor column shows your investment growing from $24K to $42K, that is the worst-case trajectory. Any deviation from reality — Bitcoin trading above the floor, which it does 100% of the time — only improves your outcome. The error term is one-directional.
6. The S&P 500 comparison uses 10% nominal CAGR. This is the commonly cited long-term average for US equities. The comparison is geometric (monthly compounding), same as the BTC projection. Neither side accounts for taxes or inflation — both are nominal returns on equal footing.
Verify it yourself. The full power law model, residual distributions, and historical price data are open for inspection at btcpowerlaw.nl.